Yield Curve Analysis
Real-time sovereign bond yield curves, spread analysis, and historical inversion tracking for global fixed-income markets.
2-Year Yield
4.62%
▲ 0.03% today
5-Year Yield
4.38%
— 0.00% today
10-Year Yield
4.19%
▼ 0.02% today
30-Year Yield
4.31%
▼ 0.01% today
2s10s Spread
+43 bps
▲ 5 bps
● Normal Slope
US Treasury Yield Curve (2Y – 30Y)
Maturity
2Y4.62%
10Y4.19%
2-Year Treasury
5-Year Treasury
10-Year Treasury
30-Year Treasury
Historical Spread Data
| Date | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | 2s10s Spread | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | 4.62% | 4.38% | 4.19% | 4.31% | +43 | Normal |
| 2025-01-14 | 4.59% | 4.38% | 4.21% | 4.32% | +38 | Normal |
| 2025-01-13 | 4.55% | 4.35% | 4.18% | 4.29% | +37 | Normal |
| 2025-01-10 | 4.51% | 4.30% | 4.15% | 4.25% | +36 | Normal |
| 2025-01-09 | 4.48% | 4.28% | 4.12% | 4.22% | +36 | Normal |
| 2025-01-08 | 4.45% | 4.25% | 4.10% | 4.20% | +35 | Normal |
Editorial Analysis: Curve Un-inversion Signals
The 2s10s yield curve has reclaimed positive territory, widening to +43 basis points as markets price in delayed Fed easing expectations. The recent flattening of the intermediate sector (5Y–10Y) suggests cautious optimism regarding inflation persistence and labor market resilience.
Historically, a sustained positive spread above +30bps for three consecutive quarters has preceded periods of stable GDP growth and reduced recession probability. However, the elevated absolute yield levels indicate that financial conditions remain restrictive for borrowers.
Fed Policy
Recession Indicator
Fixed Income
Term Premium
Key Market Insights
- Term premium remains structurally elevated post-2020 supply shifts
- 10Y breakeven inflation hovering near 2.4%, aligning with Fed target
- Corporate issuance pipeline suggests renewed demand for duration
- Global curve divergence widening between US and European sovereigns